The Yays and Nays: Our Fantasy Football Rankings, Projections and Strategy Session for Week 3 | The Analyst (2023)

Fantasy Football Quick Hits

  • Week 3 Yays:Marcus Mariota (QB10), Raheem Mostert (RB19), Deebo Samuel (WR2), Brandin Cooks (WR9), Gabe Davis (WR12)
  • Week 3 Nays:Russell Wilson (QB18), D’Andre Swift (RB14), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (RB30), Jaylen Waddle (WR26), Christian Kirk (WR25)
  • Key Data Point:Raheem Mostert’s 71.9 projected rushing yards are the most of any running back projected for fewer than 15 carries.

After eight months without football, two crazy weeks to open up the season is just what the doctor ordered.

Congrats to those of you who had either of the only two running backs who scored multiple touchdowns: Nick Chubb (sorry Cleveland Browns fans, us fantasy managers were happy Chubb scored, and so were New York Jets fans) or Aaron Jones in the Green Bay Packers’ demolition of the Chicago Bears.

Or, to those of you who had Stefon Diggs playing on Monday night in the Buffalo Bills’ evisceration of the Tennessee Titans, Jaylen Waddle or anyone on the incredibly fun Miami Dolphins, or the Detroit Lions clear No. 1 wide receiver in Amon-Ra St. Brown, you probably had a pretty fun week.

Or, if you’re like me and faced all five of those players in one league (!!!), it probably wasn’t a whole lot of fun.

But since fantasy football is a week-by-week game, it’s time to turn the page and focus on Week 3. Losing by 132.5 points (yes, that’s how much I lost by) is the same as losing by 0.1. And since matchups can be decided by so little, let’s have a little fantasy football strategy session and help correct a relatively common mistake that fantasy managers make.

Here’s the thesis statement:

If you play in a PPR league, always start a wide receiver in your Flex spot.

Seems like a bold blanket statement, right? Nope!

Here are four reasons why that is exactly what you should do.

The Math

It seems obvious but it’s worth repeating, one point per reception adds up really quickly! Five catches for 50 yards and 24 carries for 100 yards both come out to 10 fantasy points, even though one of those scenarios includes a player touching the ball 19 more times than the other. How does that happen? A 10-yard catch is worth twice as much as a 10-yard run. Essentially, more fantasy points are scored during a passing play than a running play.

Well, across the entire NFL last season, passing plays occurred on 57.9% of all plays. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers led the league at 66.2%.

The Yays and Nays: Our Fantasy Football Rankings, Projections and Strategy Session for Week 3 | The Analyst (1)

On those plays, the NFL average was 6.22 yards per play. Filtering out passes that were incomplete or intercepted, the average length of completion in the NFL last season was 10.96 yards.

Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Eagles were the only team that ran the ball more than half of the time last season at 51.2%. Overall, running plays occurred 42.1% of the time and on those plays, NFL teams averaged 4.33 yards per play.

Therefore, the average completion accounted for just under 2.1 PPR points and the average rush for less than 0.5 PPR points, or FOUR TIMES LESS than the average pass. And, oh yeah, on average, teams pass significantly more than they run.

But it even goes one step further. Amongst all qualified players last season, wide receivers averaged 12.6 yards per catch, compared to 7.8 yards for running backs. Only one qualified receiver, Rondale Moore, out of 82 total wide receivers, had an average below 7.8 yards per catch.

Which leads us to a critical baseline to establish in choosing who to put in our Flex spots each week…

WRs Have a Higher Floor

Because of the pure advantage in per-touch scoring opportunities, wide receivers have a higher floor, even though they’re not likely to receive as many touches as running backs.

Take Adam Thielen of the Minnesota Vikings for example. His team struggled all game on offense, and through three and a half quarters, Thielen didn’t have a catch, and only had one target. But in garbage time, he caught four passes for 52 yards.

And while you’re probably hoping for more than 9.2 points out of your Flex spot, it’s at least serviceable. It’s also more than the 7.6 PPR points Dalvin Cook recorded, despite having six additional touches.

In Week 2, 47 wide receivers scored at least 10 points. However, only 22 running backs reached that total. Same story in Week 1 when 46 wide receivers scored at least 10 points, compared to 33 running backs.

So, if you’re choosing between a running back and wide receiver to fill your Flex spot, chances are your receiver has a better chance of scoring at least 10 points than your back.

However, what if you think you’re playing a team that’s better than yours? Should you start a running back, since they are a higher risk, but higher reward type of position?

Well…

WRs Have a Higher Ceiling

No running back has surpassed 34 fantasy points yet this season and it only happened 10 times all of last season. In fact, there were only two running backs in Week 2 that scored more than 20 points (Chubb: 32.2, Jones: 32.0).

Meanwhile, five wide receivers have already surpassed 34 PPR points this season, after there were 17 such instances last season. And 14 wide receivers scored more than 20 points in Week 2.

But what we really need to do is take out the studs like Christian McCaffrey of the Carolina Panthers or Davante Adams of the Las Vegas Raiders – the no-doubt starters – from this equation because those types of players aren’t the ones you’re thinking about placing in your Flex spot.

Garrett Wilson, Noah Brown and Tyler Lockett were all players with a Week 2 ECR worse than WR40. So was Nelson Agholor of the New England Patriots against the Pittsburgh Steelers. All four finished amongst the top 16 wide receivers by scoring more than 19.5 points and all four likely weren’t started in your leagues.

The only running backs with an ECR of worse than 30 to score 11 fantasy points last week were Tony Pollard, Darrel Williams and J.D. McKissic.

Since most teams only field one on every play, running backs with lower ECR’s usually require something outside of their control (injuries, fumbles by the starter, etc) to produce meaningful numbers. Since most teams field at least two and usually three every play, wideouts can realistically contribute with ECR’s stretching into the 50s and 60s.

There is simply more opportunity for wide receivers and that was readily apparent in Week 2.

Recent Use Cases

We’ll close this out with some real-life examples from Week 2, starting with the running backs.

  • Leonard Fournette led all NFL players with 26 touches last week as Tom Brady struggled to get anything going against the New Orleans Saints. Fournette scored 9.4 PPR points.
  • James Robinson was second with 25 touches. He scored 15.8 PPR points.
  • Saquon Barkley of the 2-0 New York Giants was third with 24 touches as the Giants limited Daniel Jones’ overall involvement. He scored 11.8 PPR points.
  • Austin Ekeler had 23 touches on Thursday night. He scored 18.4 PPR points.
  • Joe Mixon rounded out the top five with 22 touches. He scored 11.3 PPR points.

Robinson was the only player in that group to score a touchdown, which is why he was the second-highest scorer. Ekeler’s biggest fantasy strength is his ability to catch passes out of the backfield, which he did to the tune of nine catches for the Los Angeles Chargers on Thursday night. That’s why he led this group in scoring. None of the other three players caught more than three passes.

Case in point, Javonte Williams had 16 touches in Week 2 and scored 9.5 PPR points. Williams had 18 touches in Week 1 and scored 19.8 PPR points. He didn’t score a touchdown in either week and he only rushed for 32 more yards in Week 2. But he had 11 receptions in Week 1, leading to his increased total.

While it was a difficult week for running backs, wide receivers were running rampant all over the place.

  • Christian Kirk only had six targets. But he caught all six of them, scored two touchdowns, and finished as WR7.
  • CeeDee Lamb was being benched because of the Dallas Cowboys’ quarterback situation. He only had seven catches and didn’t score a touchdown. Yet, he finished with 15.1 PPR points. Only 10 running backs scored more than 15 points last week.
  • Carson Wentz only targeted Jahan Dotson five times. If anyone in your league rostered Dotson, they almost certainly didn’t start him. He caught four passes for 60 yards and a touchdown and finished with 17.9 PPR points. Only four running backs scored more than he did, and he finished as WR20.
  • Sammy Watkins had one play go for 55 yards. He caught two other Aaron Rodgers passes and finished with 12.3 fantasy points. On three touches.

We could keep going. And we fully realize that running backs had a particularly difficult week. But even in a much more productive Week 1, there were more wide receivers that scored 20 or more points, 15+ points and 10+ points.

So let this serve as the ultimate reminder. When it comes to roster decision-making time, think long and hard before placing anything other than a wide receiver in your Flex spot.

As always, let’s jump around and evaluate some Week 3 projections gathered from some of the top data-driven projections available using several of our AI-powered models. Refer back to our fantasy football rankings for any questionable waiver wire or lineup decisions.

Week 3 Yays

Note: We’re comparing our rankings to the expert consensus rankings (ECR) fromFantasy Pros. These rankings update throughout the week. (We pulled these numbers from Thursday.) Once again, we are using PPR unless noted otherwise.

Marcus Mariota, QB (ATL) vs. SEA (ECR: 18, Our Rank: 10, Projected Points: 18.53)

Last week, we mentioned as an overreaction that Mariota would have at least six finishes as a top-12 weekly quarterback. He finished right behind Jacoby Brissett and Cooper Rush last week after a rough performance against the Los Angeles Rams. Not his best. But our model is optimistic that this is a big chance for a good Mariota performance.

There are two main reasons for this. First, the Seattle Seahawks are one of seven NFL teams that have yet to record an interception. As such, Mariota’s interception projection of 0.62 is the third lowest amongst our top 16 quarterbacks, behind only Rodgers and Kirk Cousins.

The Yays and Nays: Our Fantasy Football Rankings, Projections and Strategy Session for Week 3 | The Analyst (2)

Secondly, only Lamar Jackson and Jalen Hurts have rushed for more yards among quarterbacks than Mariota this season. And those two are the only QBs our algorithms are projecting to rush for more than Mariota this week – Kyler Murray is fourth. In a game that will likely be one of the lower scoring games, Mariota’s legs might be the difference maker for the Atlanta Falcons. He’s 10th in our QB Rankings this week, just behind stalwarts like Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow.

Raheem Mostert, RB (MIA) vs. BUF (ECR: 42, Our Rank: 19, PP: 13.71)

Lost in Miami’s astounding comeback victory over the Baltimore Ravens in Week 2 that was spearheaded by Tua Tagovailoa was Mostert’s prominence in the offense. He played more snaps than Chase Edmonds and significantly out-touched him 14-6.

It’s his three receptions to Edmonds’ one that is critical for this week, however, as the Buffalo Bills, like the Ravens did last week, can put up points in a hurry. Coming over from San Francisco with Mike McDaniel, Mostert is being put in a position to thrive, and his career averages of 5.6 yards per carry and 10.1 yards per reception are both elite numbers at the running back position.

Buffalo, in all its dominance through two weeks, did allow Derrick Henry to score a touchdown last week and Darrell Henderson Jr. to record five receptions in Week 1. Mostert’s 71.9 projected rushing yards are the most of any running back projected for fewer than 15 carries. He has a solid chance of returning RB2 value this week.

Deebo Samuel, Wide Back (SF) vs. DEN (ECR: 10, Our Rank: 2, PP: 21.80)

That’s right. Wide Back. With another running back injured, and sadly, Trey Lance as well, Deebo is likely going to continue seeing increased opportunities in the backfield for Kyle Shanahan’s San Francisco 49ers, especially with the NFL’s best blocking tight end George Kittle likely on his way back. In Jimmy Garoppolo’s last five games, Deebo has averaged 47 rushing yards and has scored two rushing touchdowns on top of his production as the premier player in the NFL in yards after the catch.

Our model is expecting more of the same this week against Denver. Because while catching passes is more important, Deebo’s floor and ceiling are raised by his likelihood of having some carries in goal-to-go situations. He’s a top-three wideout this week, and a top-one wide back.

Brandin Cooks, WR (HOU) vs. CHI (ECR: 17, Our Rank: 9, PP: 14.95)

Cooks, who was prominently featured on our Yay lists last season, is making his first appearance this season, once again remaining an underrated fantasy option. He’s earning a massive 29.3% target share, meaning that Davis Mills is targeting Cooks on 29.3% of his passing attempts so far this season.

Now after playing a stingy Broncos defense, Cooks and the Houston Texans face a Chicago Bears team that just allowed 12.3 yards per reception to the Packers. In his career, Cooks averages 13.8 yards per catch – almost identical to Tyreek Hill’s 13.9 yards per catch. Cooks is projected for the seventh-most targets of any wide receiver this week, and he should see more success against the Bears.

As the undisputed top dog in the wide receiver room for the Texans, Cooks will continue to receive massive opportunities to produce. Our model thinks he’s got a real shot at a top-10 finish this week, sitting right behind the star receiver duo of the Cincinnati Bengals.

Gabe Davis, WR (BUF) vs. MIA (ECR: 24, Our Rank: 12, PP: 14.66)

This has a chance to be the game of the week, and extremely profitable from a fantasy perspective, with outstanding weapons across the field. And while it’s Diggs that gets most of the attention, Davis has carved out a significant role in the Bills offense.

Davis has scored 10 touchdowns in his last eight games despite having only one game with more than five catches. He’s the big-play threat on this offense and that was reflected in his big-play percentage of 48.9, which led all receivers that ran at least 200 routes last season.

So, what we have is a receiver who consistently produces big plays and just happens to have maybe the strongest arm in the NFL in Josh Allen throwing to him – although Justin Herbert and Mahomes may have something to say about that. Davis is currently questionable to play this week with an ankle injury. But if he’s able to suit up, he’s a must start in this potentially high scoring affair.

Week 3 Nays

Russell Wilson, QB (DEN) vs. SF (ECR: 11, Our Rank: 18, PP: 14.86)

The 49ers have been tortured by Wilson in the past, going a rather remarkable 4-17 against the ex-Seahawks star, so they were surely thrilled when he was traded. Until they looked at the schedule and saw that once again, there he was on their schedule, this time with the Denver Broncos. But our model thinks this game might go differently.

Wilson is only projected for 31.5 passing attempts this week – the third-lowest total among all 32 starting quarterbacks. Why? Because the Niners have been excellent at possessing the ball so far this season, leading the NFL in time of possession through two weeks.

The Yays and Nays: Our Fantasy Football Rankings, Projections and Strategy Session for Week 3 | The Analyst (3)

Because of that, the 49ers defense has seen the second-fewest passing attempts against (52) and allowed the fewest passing yards (285). Wilson, meanwhile, is still adjusting to his new teammates and surroundings. He has completed fewer than 50% of his passes in the red zone and has yet to throw a touchdown in the red zone, despite 18 attempts. Facing a menacing defense, Wilson is outside our model’s top 15 quarterbacks this week, right behind Jameis Winston.

D’Andre Swift, RB (DET) vs. MIN (ECR: 7, Our Rank: 14, PP: 14.20)

No running back was more efficient with touches last week than Swift. Swift finished as RB7 in the Detroit Lions’ win over the Washington Commanders despite only receiving seven touches in the entire game.

There are two ways to process that information. The first is that if Swift were to maintain that efficiency and simply receive a few more touches, he’d be an elite RB option this week and the rest of the season. The other way to receive that information is to be concerned that he only received seven touches.

Our model leans ever so slightly to the latter this week, ultimately leaning on the principle that touches are more important than general efficiency. That and concern that Swift only has two carries in the red zone so far this season, compared to Jamaal Williams’ nine, has Swift outside the RB1 conversation for our algorithms this week.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB (KC) vs. IND (ECR: 17, Our Rank: 30, PP: 10.96)

Here’s the list of players who have finished as a top-10 running back in both weeks to start the season: Swift and Edwards-Helaire. That’s it. And it just so happens those two running backs make up our Nay list for the week.

Edwards-Helaire, like Swift, has gotten off to a great start despite a lack of touches. He has yet to carry the rock more than eight times in a game this season and hasn’t reached double-digit carries since Week 14 of last season. With his four receptions in Week 2 being his high watermark during that stretch, Edwards-Helaire’s projection for this week is nine carries and only two receptions. And the Indianapolis Colts have allowed the second-fewest yards per carry (2.66) to start the season

If you have him, he’s probably worth a start because of the consistency he’s shown through the first two weeks and his starting role on a dynamic Kansas City Chiefs offense. However, his volume is simply not enough to treat him as anything more than a touchdown-dependent RB2.

Jaylen Waddle, WR (MIA) vs. BUF (ECR: 9, Our Rank: 26, PP: 12.73)

This one is scary for us. Waddle is one of the very few NFL players with the consistent ability to score a 50-yard touchdown on any given play. The model placing a player with that ability so far down the list is essentially indicating that they are too reliant on a big play for fantasy value.

For Waddle, that’s certainly the case. If we had magic powers to go back in time and take back Waddle’s touchdown in Week 1, he would have finished the week with 6.5 points. As for his Week 2 explosion, it can be explained by highlighting that he received six more targets in the game than his previous career high.

A return to the norm in passing volume and a limited chance of a big play against a strong Bills defense lowers Waddle’s prospects of a repeat top-10 performance rather significantly. He’s a low-end, big-play dependent WR2.

Christian Kirk, WR (JAX) vs. LAC (ECR: 12, Our Rank: 25, PP: 12.88)

Kirk, as we alluded to in our intro, was the beneficiary of two touchdowns in Week 2. The touchdowns masked the fact that he only had six targets and that the Jacksonville Jaguars ran the ball 12 more times than they threw it.

Through two weeks, Kirk has also faced the Commanders and the Colts – two generous pass defenses. The matchup gets much tougher this week when the Jags face an elite pass rush led by Joey Bosa and maybe the best secondary in the NFL, led by J.C. Jackson and Derwin James (did you see that tackle on star tight end Travis Kelce?). The Chargers have held two players (Patrick Mahomes and Derek Carr) who finished in the top five in passing yards last season under 300 yards. Trevor Lawrence and the Jags will likely struggle to hit that mark.

To make matters more difficult, Kirk’s career high in touchdowns in a single season is six with the Arizona Cardinals in 2020. He doesn’t have a great history of scoring touchdowns and facing a team that’s well equipped to slow him down, he’ll likely need the massive volume (12 targets) he saw in Week 1 to return WR2 value.

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FAQs

Who has the most accurate fantasy football projections? ›

Most Accurate Draft Experts from 2019 to 2021
RankExpert NameDST
1Sean Koerner - The Action Network10
2Jared Smola - Draft Sharks15
3Pat Fitzmaurice - FantasyPros46
4Rob Waziak - Fantasy Life22
38 more rows

What are projections in fantasy football? ›

Projections are simply the statistics you think that a player will end up with for a season or even a certain game.

Are NFL fantasy projections accurate? ›

Well, it depends on what we want. In this case, the average relative error of ESPN's projections is indistinguishable from zero, but ESPN over-projects 60% of the time!

What is the most important position in fantasy football? ›

Far and away, the most important position on your team is the running back. And because of this, your top priority in the first few rounds is to plug up all the RB spots. And one of your first duties after that is to start drafting depth at the position.

Who is the most accurate ESPN fantasy football analyst? ›

Adam Schefter. Schefter is a sports writer and television analyst most of the time, but also often participates in discourse surrounding fantasy football. He has been an NFL insider for over 10 years with ESPN, making him an extremely credible source for all things fantasy football.

Who is the number 1 player in fantasy? ›

Top Overall - Weeks 1 to 11 (2022)
RankPlayerPoints
1Patrick Mahomes II269.4
2Josh Allen257.6
3Jalen Hurts243.3
4Justin Fields235.0
46 more rows

Do projections matter in fantasy football? ›

The bottom line is that we suggest using projections instead of rankings because 1), projections can be adapted to your league settings (unlike rankings) 2) projections tell you how much players are better than each other, 3) you can calculate rankings from projections but you cannot calculate projections from rankings ...

How do I see projections in fantasy football? ›

You can expect to see projections for all default positions (QB, WR, RB, TE, K and D/ST) on Tuesdays and IDP positions (DL, LB and DE) on Thursdays during the NFL season. You can view them by going to your team page or by viewing the projected scores for your upcoming matchups from the league scoreboard.

Is fantasy football more luck or skill? ›

Presently, in most US states, fantasy sports (including DFS) is generally considered a game of skill and therefore not legally considered as gambling (where there's an element of both luck and chance).

Who is the best fantasy expert? ›

Weekly Fantasy Nation Expert Accuracy Rankings YTD Thru Week 16
RKExpertSite
1Rob WaziakFantasy Life
2John Paulsen4for4.com
3Jeff RatcliffeFTN
4Nick SpencerFantasySixPack
68 more rows

What is the best scoring format for fantasy football? ›

The Best Fantasy Football Scoring System
  • 6 points for player returning or recovering a fumble for TD.
  • 2 points per rushing or receiving 2 pt conversion.
  • 2 points per passing 2 pt conversion.
  • 1 point per 10 yards rushing or receiving.
  • 1 point per 25 yards passing.
  • 0.5 points per reception.
  • 0.5 points per TE reception.
21 Jul 2022

What positions should I draft first in fantasy football 2022? ›

  • Round 1, Picks 1-3: Draft a RB or WR.
  • Round 2, Picks 22-24: Draft a RB or WR.
  • Round 3, Picks 25-27: Draft a RB.
3 Sept 2022

What positions should you pick first in fantasy football? ›

What Position Should You Draft First? Without a doubt, you should prioritize drafting running backs in fantasy football. Each team will start two or more running backs, but not every team will have two or more good running backs.

Who should you pick first in fantasy football 2022? ›

Jonathan Taylor looks set to be the No. 1 pick in the majority of 2022 drafts, but that's up for some debate as one of our analysts has Christian McCaffrey ranked as the top overall player heading into the season. There are more questions from there, with little consensus among our experts throughout the first round.

How much does the average ESPN analyst make? ›

How much does an ESPN Sports Analyst make? As of Nov 15, 2022, the average annual pay for an ESPN Sports Analyst in the United States is $59,828 a year.

How much does a fantasy football analyst make? ›

Fantasy Football Analyst Salary in the United States. How much does a Fantasy Football Analyst make in the United States? The salary range for a Fantasy Football Analyst job is from $61,990 to $86,974 per year in the United States.

What is the deepest position in fantasy football? ›

In today's pass-first league, wide receiver continues to be the deepest position in fantasy football.

What is the best fantasy football team for 2022? ›

Fantasy Football 2022: NFL team power rankings
  • Cleveland Browns.
  • New England Patriots.
  • Atlanta Falcons.
  • Chicago Bears.
  • Jacksonville Jaguars.
  • New York Jets.
  • Carolina Panthers.
  • Washington Commanders.
24 Aug 2022

What are the best bench positions in fantasy football? ›

The bench has no rules regarding what positions you must have on it, but owners will typically carry additional skill-position players such as quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers. The reason owners carry extra of these players is because they have the highest potential to score the most number of points.

Who is the best fantasy RB right now? ›

Player Rankings
RankPlayerOpp
1Austin Ekeler RB - LAC@ARI
2Christian McCaffrey RB - SFNO
3Derrick Henry RB - TENCIN
4Saquon Barkley RB - NYG@DAL
46 more rows

What should you not do in fantasy football? ›

10 Things NOT To Do In Fantasy Football
  • Fantasy Football Mistakes To Avoid. ...
  • Pays the League Entry Fee Late (or not at all) ...
  • Comes to the Draft Unprepared. ...
  • Drafts a Kicker Early. ...
  • Bombards the League with Lame Trade Offers. ...
  • Forgets to Cover Their Bye Week Players. ...
  • Doesn't Respond to Trade Offers.
4 Jun 2017

Is Fantasy Premier League luck or skill? ›

MIT researchers have found that fantasy sports games reward skill rather than luck. They've reached that conclusion after analyzing thousands of win/loss records of fantasy players over several seasons. People who win their fantasy league definitely earn the bragging rights.

What should my bench look like in fantasy football? ›

Your bench should be 100% ceiling and 100% WRs and RBs. If benches are short, then the waiver wire is deeper. There will be plenty of plug and play guys available and plenty of streaming options at QB and TE. When you are limited to only a few players on your bench, they have to be guys that can hit big.

What time do fantasy projections come out? ›

Our NBA Projections are released every morning by 8 AM EST of the NBA season.

How many of each position should you have in fantasy football? ›

You have the right to designate a certain number of players in your squad. However, players drafted in a traditional team include two quarterbacks, four wide receivers, two tight ends, four running backs, two kickers and two defense/special teams (punt and kickoff return).

How are ESPN fantasy projections calculated? ›

ESPN's player projections, as with most projection models, uses a weighted average of the player's most recent seasons, with more emphasis on recent performance. Each season, however, is first "neutralized" using three-year park factors and major league equivalencies (MLEs) from Double- and Triple-A.

What positions should I draft first in fantasy football PPR? ›

First round pick

Running backs are typically targeted early in fantasy drafts. Since this is a PPR league, the best wide receivers in the league tend to jump into the first round. The first 12 draft picks should be a mix of running backs and wide receivers, depending on which direction you want to take your roster.

Does drafting increase speed? ›

Drafting decreases the overall power needed to ride at a constant speed or allows a rider to go slightly faster with the same power. You might think the change in air drag behind a small profile like a bike is small, and it is certainly not as significant as drafting behind a large truck.

Who is the best player to draft in fantasy? ›

Updated top-200 rankings
  • Christian McCaffrey.
  • Cooper Kupp.
  • Jonathan Taylor.
  • Austin Ekeler.
  • Justin Jefferson.
  • Alvin Kamara.
  • Dalvin Cook.
  • Travis Kelce.
1 Sept 2022

Is it smart to stack in fantasy football? ›

Correlation in stacking is a powerful statistical force that, when used properly, reduces the number of variables needed in order for your fantasy football team to hit a high end ceiling. Mathematically, by drafting Brown and Herbert, any touchdown that Herbert throws only contributes four points to my fantasy team.

When should you pick your QB in fantasy? ›

Looking at our top two strategies, Normal FLEX and One of Each, we can see that our target range for drafting a QB should be rounds 3, 5, or 6.

What round should I take a QB in fantasy? ›

In superflex leagues, it will be essential to come out of the first two rounds with at least one starting QB, and the second one should be taken no later than the fifth round.

Who is the best fantasy defensive player? ›

2022 defensive lineman rankings
Rank, PlayerClayAVG
1. T.J. Watt, PitIR11.7
2. Nick Bosa, SF22.0
3. Aaron Donald, LAR32.3
4. Joey Bosa, LACIR44.0
46 more rows
15 Aug 2022

Who is the best flex in fantasy? ›

Fantasy Football Flex Rankings (2022)
  • Jonathan Taylor. IND. RB. ...
  • Christian McCaffrey. SF. RB. ...
  • Derrick Henry. TEN. RB. ...
  • Dalvin Cook. MIN. RB. ...
  • Cooper Kupp. LAR. WR. ...
  • Justin Jefferson. MIN. WR. ...
  • Ja'Marr Chase. CIN. WR. ...
  • Nick Chubb. CLE. RB.

Who is the number 1 receiver in fantasy right now? ›

Cooper Kupp

Who should I pick 2nd overall fantasy football? ›

The second pick in Fantasy drafts should be a running back. In a 12-team league, your wide receiver options in rounds two and three will be much more appealing than those at running back, so go ahead and grab your anchor RB with the second overall pick.

Who should I draft 2nd in fantasy football? ›

2022 Fantasy Football Mock Draft 2.0: A new second overall pick...
  • 1.01 - Jonathan Taylor, RB, Indianapolis Colts. ...
  • 1.02 - Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers. ...
  • 1.03 - Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams. ...
  • 1.04 - Justin Jefferson, WR, Minnesota Vikings. ...
  • 1.05 - Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers.
15 Aug 2022

How many RB should I draft? ›

Ideally, you want at least two total RBs from the top-three tiers, and then at least two more by the end of Tier 5.

Is it better to draft RB or WR first? ›

You're avoiding RBs in the top rounds because running backs bust at a higher rate than receivers, or so the theory goes at least. So you take receivers first, then wait until later rounds to take less-heralded running backs. Will a running back get drafted in the first round of the 2022 NFL draft?

What is the best football position for beginners? ›

1. Running back. It's a no-brainer that running back is the position at which a freshman will have the easiest time seeing the field. Mentally, it's not a very complicated position besides the pass protection aspect.

What is the third most important position in football? ›

3. Center (Offense) Continuing in this list of the most important NFL positions is also an offensive lineman. The center is tasked with hiking the football for QB.

What order should I pick fantasy players? ›

Ideally, this is how your first five picks play out: RB, RB, WR/TE, WR, WR. There's nothing wrong with grabbing an elite quarterback in the third, fourth or fifth rounds or paying up for a receiver in the second.

Who is the best RB in NFL 2022? ›

Top 15 running backs
  • Nick Chubb. Cleveland Browns · Year 5. ...
  • Saquon Barkley. New York Giants · Year 5. ...
  • Christian McCaffrey. Carolina Panthers · Year 6. ...
  • Miles Sanders. Philadelphia Eagles · Year 4. ...
  • Derrick Henry. Tennessee Titans · Year 7. ...
  • Aaron Jones. Green Bay Packers · Year 6. ...
  • Jonathan Taylor. ...
  • Khalil Herbert.
6 Oct 2022

Who is the most accurate draft predictor? ›

Brendan Donahue, the #1 most accurate mock drafter over the past five NFL seasons according to The Huddle Report, gives you his mock draft for the 2022 NFL Draft — making predictions for every team and every pick in the first round.

Who is the most accurate mock draft predictor? ›

Who has the most accurate NFL Mock Draft?
RankAnalystPoints by Category
Player Ranks (?) 96 pts possible
1Albert Breer - The MMQB77
2Charlie Campbell - Walter Football72
3Anthony Staggs - 4for484
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Are Numberfire projections accurate? ›

Fantasy Results

Accuracy refers to one service's projection being more accurate than another. When we say that we were 61% more accurate than ESPN, it means that our projections were more accurate than theirs 61% of the time.

How accurate are rotowire projections? ›

One is the average of the above projections.
...
Projection Accuracy: Early March Plate Appearances.
ProjectionRMSE
Rotowire156.4
PECOTA157.4
DepthCharts159.8
BatX168.1
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19 Oct 2021

Who is the best draft analyst? ›

Every year The Huddle Report grades the top mock drafts and top 100 boards from analysts around the web.
...
Who Was the Most Accurate NFL Draft Expert This Year?
The Huddle Report Mock Draft Rankings - Top Five
AnalystScore
1. Reginald Brooks - Fantasy Football 1on150
2. Jason Boris - Times News50
3. Mike Mayock - NFL Network49
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Who is the most accurate QB 2022? ›

2022 QB Power Rankings | Tier 1: Elite
  • 1) Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs. ...
  • 2) Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills. ...
  • 3) Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles. ...
  • 4) Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins. ...
  • 5) Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals. ...
  • 6) Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens. ...
  • 7) Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks. ...
  • 8) Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers.
17 Nov 2022

Who has the best mock draft 2022? ›

2022 Best Ball fantasy football mock draft | Round 1
  • 1.01 Jonathan Taylor | RB, Indianapolis Colts. ...
  • 1.02 Cooper Kupp | WR, Los Angeles Rams. ...
  • 1.03 Christian McCaffrey | RB, Carolina Panthers. ...
  • 1.04 Austin Ekeler | RB, Los Angeles Chargers. ...
  • 1.05 Justin Jefferson | WR, Minnesota Vikings. ...
  • 1.06 Derrick Henry | RB, Tennessee Titans.
29 May 2022

How do you grade a mock draft? ›

So it's time to revisit the mocks and see who fared best and who did the worst. My mock draft scoring system is simple: for every spot you are wrong by, you get a point. So if you had Aidan Hutchinson going 1st overall, you only got penalized 1 point, if you had Malik Willis going 20th, you got 66 points.

What are the best NFL mock draft sites? ›

DraftSite – Excellent, year round mock drafts for multiple sports. Brooklyn Beat – Brooklyn Beat is a news and opinion website that covers film, music and sports in America. NFLDraftExpress – Multi-round mock draft. NFL Mock Draft – MyNFLdraft.com has got the NFL Draft Covered!

How do mock drafts work? ›

Mock drafts are essentially live practice. A user can select to enter a draft with anywhere from 8 to 20 users. Once the draft begins, users draft a team. This team only exists until the draft is complete.

What is the difference between predictions and projections? ›

We predict when we say in advance, foretell, or prophesy what is likely to happen in the future. We project when we calculate the numerical value associated with a future event.

Are Yahoo fantasy football projections accurate? ›

With all of the stats that are calculated, such as yards-per-carry and yards-after-contact, you would figure that projections would tend to be quite accurate. Unfortunately that isn't the case. Although better than the quarterback projections, overall we still have a hit rate of less than 50 percent.

How accurate are growth projections? ›

Population forecasts are generally quite accurate. Country-level forecasts, such as those made by the United Nations and the World Bank, miss the mark by about 6 percent on average.

Who has the best lineup Optimizer? ›

Daily Fantasy Nerd offers valuable, affordable optimization tools. If you're looking to generate quality DFS fantasy lineups without breaking the bank, Daily Fantasy Nerd has the best DFS optimizer for the price. Their $24.99 monthly package (the Veteran) is 20% cheaper than every other lineup generator in this review.

How do you create a winning lineup in DFS? ›

Here are what we've found works best:
  1. Pick 3 game stacks, play both QBs from your game stacks, resulting in 6 QBs for your player pool (2 game stacks, 4 QBs for 20 lineups).
  2. Keep a tight RB pool. ...
  3. Expand your WRs. ...
  4. Keep a small TE pool. ...
  5. Limit your DSTs. ...
  6. Don't play any offensive players against your DSTs.

How do you get a good lineup on Fanduel? ›

BIG TIPS FOR BIG WINS
  1. Stack Up. Pick a QB and a WR from the same team. ...
  2. Play the Matchups. When playing against poor defenses, budget QBs can produce fantasy points on par with the expensive studs.
  3. Look for Volume. Find RBs and WRs with big workloads, and the fantasy points will come.
  4. FLEX on 'Em. ...
  5. Bring on the Backups.

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